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Winning Hulu Selangor

A victorious Kamalanathan with Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin (left)
and Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak

THE Barisan Nasional (BN) has wrested back Hulu Selangor from Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR), but who is the real winner — MIC candidate P Kamalanathan, or Prime Minister Datuk Seri Najib Razak?

Kamalanathan polled 24,997 votes against Datuk Zaid Ibrahim‘s 23,272 in a closely fought race. There were 731 spoilt ballots. Voter turnout was 75.87%, compared with 75.24% in the 2008 general election. In the 2008 polls, PKR won the federal seat by a slim 198-vote margin. This time round, it lost by 1,725 votes.

Kamalanathan’s campaign was run not on what his principles would be as a parliamentarian, but on what the Najib administration wanted to sell. Hence, the MIC information chief was labelled a “1Malaysia candidate”. Indeed, even his name was adapted to suit his audience — Kamal to Malay Malaysians, Nathan to Indian Malaysians, and Alan to Chinese Malaysians.

For certain, the results reflect some degree of support for Najib’s initiatives. Beyond that, however, what do the results mean for both the BN and the Pakatan Rakyat (PR)?

How they voted

A quick count of votes in Malay Malaysian-dominated polling districts like the Felda settlement Sungai Tengi showed that Kamalanthan polled 66% of the votes. Other villages like Gedangsa, Sungai Dusun and Kampung Gesir also showed improvements over the BN’s results in 2008.

These polling stations are all in the Hulu Bernam state seat, where the BN reaped an almost 1,700 majority.

In the Chinese Malaysian-dominated state seat of Kuala Kubu Baru, Zaid obtained a majority of about 1,400 votes, also a marked increase from PKR’s share of votes here in 2008.

Zaid, accompanied by Datuk Seri Anwar Ibrahim, Datuk Seri Dr Wan Azizah
Wan Ismail and Nasharuddin Mat Isa (far right), on nomination day on 17 April

Both rivals were neck-to-neck in the Batang Kali state seat, where voters’ racial categorisations are more mixed. The BN polled just over 50% of votes here.

Meanwhile, Indian Malaysian votes in estate areas like Changkat Asa, Ladang Kerling, Ladang Nigel Gardner, and even the semi-urban area of Taman Bukit Teratai, showed improvement for the BN candidate from MIC.

Impact of results

Possibly, the most pertinent impact on the country as a result of stronger Malay Malaysian support for the BN in this by-election is the shape of Najib’s future decision-making.

If Malay Malaysians, but not Chinese Malaysians, are endorsing the BN, will Najib come under greater right-wing pressure to slow down on liberalisation, including readjusting affirmative action policies, and increasing Islamisation? Conservative groups could easily argue that since Chinese Malaysians have not appreciated the government’s efforts, there is no further need to fulfil their demands.

On the other hand, continuing pro-bumiputera policies and greater Islamic fervour may not necessarily be priorities for Malay Malaysian voters in Hulu Selangor, especially those concerned with bread-and-butter issues.

For local grassroots politicians, returning the seat to the BN could simply have been the desire for a return to the patronage system. By having a BN-elected representative, Umno and MIC division leaders would once again enjoy the spread of federal constituency allocations received by a BN Member of Parliament (MP).

The BN should also not be too quick to claim the win as an endorsement of Najib’s government. Disgruntled Malay Malaysian voters here, especially Felda settlers who still have not obtained their land titles, may have decided to enjoy the promised campaign benefits for the next two years or less, before deciding again in the 13th general election.

This would be a similar phenomenon to the Ijok state by-election in 2007, where the BN poured millions of development ringgit into the contest. Voters picked the MIC candidate then, only to turn around and vote for PKR in 2008.

Kamalanathan with his wife Shobana Subramaniam,
after the polling results were announced

Political observer Dr Sivamurugan Pandian, Universiti Sains Malaysia deputy dean of the School of Social Sciences, says the by-election was a “test to see whether the BN has changed”. But given the above scenarios, the coalition’s win is unlikely motivation for change from the old school of race-based, patronage-driven politics.

Component parties

The declining Chinese Malaysian support for the BN — a consistent trend in the past nine by-elections — continues to raise questions about the role of some of the BN’s component parties.

If — after 10 by-elections and a seemingly reform-minded prime minister — the Chinese Malaysian vote continues to side with the PR, the MCA and Gerakan ought to be assessing their game plan. A possible worst-case scenario within the ruling coalition is that Umno could start pressing for the return of seats “given” to component parties.

As for the Indian Malaysian vote, which showed improvements in areas where this racial group was dominant, support for the BN may have been out of practicality.

Ibrahim Suffian (File pic
courtesy of Merdeka Center)
“The campaign issues about personal morality, although sensational, are less important than the development, economic as well as practical needs of the electorate,” notes Merdeka Center for Opinion Research director Ibrahim Suffian.

The earlier influence of groups like Hindraf has also lessened over the past two years, more so with Najib’s populist move as prime minister to release the group’s activists from Internal Security Act detention. Hence, the theory that Najib’s move to woo Indian Malaysians without waiting for MIC to resolve its internal problems seems to have borne fruit in Hulu Selangor.

“It seems that the momentum of the opposition has been blunted for now, and that the public has agreed to give the PM the benefit of the doubt. Najib will have to deliver on his promises,” Ibrahim tells The Nut Graph.

The new MP

If Kamalanathan wants to shine, he will now have to prove his mettle in Parliament against a more popular opposition. Public relations skills may carry him only so far. To gain the respect of his peers across the floor and a more sophisticated public, he’ll have to showcase his own capabilities or risk being known as Umno’s lackey. He is now the fourth MIC MP.

“The fight all along was between Umno and PKR, even though he was an MIC candidate. It was a Najib versus (Datuk Seri) Anwar (Ibrahim) fight. It’s going to be tough for the MIC [to assert itself in the BN], even with Kamalanathan’s win. If he swung the Malay [Malaysian] votes, it was because they saw him as a proxy to Umno,” political analyst Khoo Kay Peng tells The Nut Graph.

Khoo also feels that in this day and age, Kamalanathan cannot afford to function solely as a problem-solving MP. Khoo refers to Ijok, where PKR’s Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim, who lost the by-election, was “resurrected” on the back of public desire for reform.

Tan Sri Khalid Ibrahim greeting supporters in Kuala Kubu Baru town earlier on polling day

Lesson for PR

For PKR, the loss is a good lesson ahead of the next general election, USM’s Sivamurugan says. It needs to urgently address internal problems and the loss of confidence among its members, as noted by the rise in party defections.

“There is a gap in PKR between top leaders and the grassroots, and between those who joined the party in its formative days in 1999 and newer members. The old guard was cast aside and left to feel threatened by newcomers who were in a hurry for power and position.

“Anwar has to balance and synthesise between the old guard and the new,” Sivamurugan says in a phone interview.

Indeed, the PR as a whole has so far been riding high as the underdog. Its popularity is fuelled by external crises such as the BN’s takeover of Perak, and, of course, the second round of sodomy charges against Anwar.

In Selangor where Hulu Selangor is, however, PR was the state government. National issues of corruption and injustice, too, had little traction among the more rural electorate.

PKR’s challenge in the remaining two years before the next general election is to lead an effective state government in Selangor. As for the BN, without having suffered a resounding loss in Hulu Selangor, change might still be a long way off.

See also: 
Moment of truth in Hulu Selangor  
Hulu Selangor assessment and strategies 
Convincing the Orang Asli in Hulu Selangor  
What Indian Malaysian voters want  
Saving Parliament from the EC  
BN’s “nice guy” offer for Hulu Selangor
On the Hulu Selangor trail
Irrelevant PR rhetoric
Is Zaid’s drinking relevant?
Campaign delusions and contradictions
Hulu Selangor’s significance
What will Kamalanathan do?  
Hulu Selangor’s four-corner fight

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11 Responses to “Winning Hulu Selangor”

  1. Mera Silu says:

    Congratulations to BN. I hope this is the beginning of many good things for this country. To PKR, take cue from Semangat 46 and prepare for dissolution. For the Chinese [Malaysian] voters in Hulu Selangor and elsewhere – good showing and please continue with your attitude against the Umno-led government. [You] need to show it again and again so that the Umno-led government will understand and take action against you. If you are not happy, then please migrate elsewhere – you will do a lot of good to this country.

  2. fiona says:

    It looks like it’s going to be a very tough time ahead for PR. This loss echoes the party’s failure to win the hearts of many people in believing that they are the victimized party.

    Anwar and Zaid are two individuals who are mirror images of each other. Anwar is banking too much on the national issues; for instance, the Apco issue did not [resonate] with the people in Hulu Selangor.

    They were also very slow at the beginning of the campaign. This may be attributable to the many issues that suddenly cropped up, like the clash between PKR and PAS regarding the campaign.

  3. Elections Analyst says:

    PKR is lucky to have minimised the loss to 1,725 votes, which represents only 3.6% of the total votes. Apart from the monetary handouts that were conditional on voters voting for BN, which could have swung 1,000 votes or 2% to BN, I can find some solid reasons why PKR and Zaid could not convincingly swing the voters in their favour:

    1. Constant harping on the Apco issue by Anwar Ibrahim. It is not relevant to Hulu Selangor and also the nation although a case can be made that the US$23m is tax payers money. It is as if Anwar and the PR coaltion were waiting for a big fish issue to drop from the sky for them to raise up as an election issue.

    2. When you want to win rural votes, be careful to select someone voters can identify with. Zaid is more of an urban success story. If he was a kampung boy to riches story, there was little meat to chew on.

    3. PKR did not respond strongly to the character assassination of drinking alcohol. So what if Hishammuddin or other members of cabinet drank in the past? They are not standing for election in Hulu Selangor, lah.

    3. The New Economic Model, even if it is a public relations ploy, was good PR for BN. The Opposition could not counter with a simple counter punch but instead responded with several disagreements in a thick report. Fence sitters throughout the nation are still waiting for the NEM Part II and may be willing to give the benefit of the doubt until then.

    4. As far as the Indian voters were concerned, Kamalanathan was probably seen as the underdog (overlooked by Samy, mocked by the Opposition for kissing hands, etc). The truth about his university degree is also contentious and inconclusive.

    5. Is the name of the game among Islamic conservatives still: who is a better Jew-basher? Anwar seems to have gone overboard by calling the head of Apco a Jew. Wonder what Christian Malaysians thought about that when majority of them love the Jewish people. […] God hates and judges countries that condemn the nation/people He loves.

  4. M.K. says:

    PR just lost one battle but the war is still on. They still have time to reflect, and rectify their shortcomings. Meanwhile, Anwar should stick to more urgent issues that matter instead of things like Apco and Israel.

  5. Dr Syed Alwi says:

    Has it occurred to you that the Malaysian Malay actually wants to hold on to the Ketuanan Melayu, Islam and the NEP ?
    Pakatan is well-advised to note the Malay insecurities. By and large, the Malaysian Malay only wants BN to clean up its act but NOT to dispense away with the Ketuanan and NEP. They still want it retained.

  6. Born2reign says:

    PKR going racist against Jews was in bad taste. On the other hand they called Hindraf’s demands racist in favour of Indians.

    The average Joe in urban and kampung are concerned with 3 things: FOOD, UTILITIES & TRANSPORTATION.

    Inflation & weak purchasing power – increased costs of daycare, medical, transportation (school, work) and food.

    Weak economy – Job losses have caused many to borrow heavily, extra jobs and OT, no family time.

    BLR Increase – borderline house loan borrowers cannot even pay for monthly installments.

    Somehow, PKR has lost touch with the daily sufferings of the people. BTW, I happen to like Jews.

  7. Main says:

    To punish voters for not voting BN is something done only by those who don’t know what ‘rakyat’ means. If there are indications that those in the areas that did not vote for BN are being victimised, then it’s a total mishap on the part of BN. Hopefully, BN will realise that it needs to serve all, no matter who.

  8. lkl says:

    1Malaysia got a revision in the Hulu Selangor by-election: it’s OK to bribe. Why is it OK for the Prime Minister to openly dangle money in front of voters to be given only if he wins? I’m sure the MACC turned deaf temporarily when they heard this.

    There seems to be confusion about the role of a parliamentarian. It seems that a MP is someone who should clear the longkang. I’d think Zaid would make for a much better person to debate on the legislation of national interests than Kamalanathan who would be a better state assemblyman.

    With due respect, Kamalanathan looks like a yes-person through and through. The Koh Tsu Koon type. Nice and nothing to talk about. This ‘blank’, I think, is the main reason why he was Umno’s pick after Umno suffered humiliation with the disbarred lawyer.

    Somebody other than Anwar from PR has to step out and shine already. Anwar is kind of trapped in a time warp. Somebody has to project a fresh and proactive outlook for PR.

  9. Peter says:

    One thing that struck me about this by-election is the ability to tell voters’ choice by race/location.

    What is the implications of this new way of tallying votes?

    Won’t this encourage more political actions/plans specifically tuned for racial profiling of the voters?

  10. MediaGuru says:

    If Dr Syed Alwi comments hold true, should Malay [Malaysians’] vote for Zaid Ibrahim as a product of the NEP, rather than a son of pendatang beggars from the Indian subcontinent?

  11. alzoubori says:

    Regardless the Chinese [Malaysian] community not supporting BN, the Malay [Malaysian] [votes] should be no problem for BN. But in [mixed race] places like PJ, Subang Jaya, Penang, and Ipoh, I doubt BN has a chance to win the 13th general election. MCA and Gerakan are useless for the time being!

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