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By-elections and bumiputeraism

Corrected at 2.59pm, 16 April 2010

WHILE by-elections can hardly be considered referendums, they are nevertheless mid-term elections and often have far-reaching implications.

The triple by-elections of April 2009

Remember the triple by-elections of April 2009? What if newly-minted premier Datuk Seri Najib Razak‘s Barisan Nasional (BN) had won all three handsomely? Would he then have been forced to repackage his party and government through the 1Malaysia campaign and management of ministerial key performance indicators? It was the BN’s defeat in two out of the three by-elections that probably pushed Najib to woo back voters so aggressively.

Similarly, the upcoming Hulu Selangor and Sibu by-elections will likely shape Malaysian politics in more ways than can be expected from the two constituencies’ nominal weight —1.8% of Parliament. In fact, I believe they will determine the future of bumiputeraism, and the debate about this within Umno.

It is thus important to first look at the ethnic composition of the two seats, since they are quite different.

Hulu Selangor has a bare majority of Malay Malaysians. Chinese and Indian Malaysians make up most of the remainder and are almost equally split in number. Except for the over-representation of Indian Malaysians, Hulu Selangor is almost a demographic microcosm of West Malaysia. While the parliamentary seat was won by Parti Keadilan Rakyat (PKR) in 2008, its three state seats went to the BN. This suggests that it might have remained a BN stronghold had it not been for candidacy and ethnic factors.

Sibu, on the other hand, is an urban East Malaysian seat with about 60% Chinese Malaysians. The remainder are Christian and Muslim bumiputera in roughly equal numbers. The late Datuk Robert Lau‘s comfortable 3,235-vote margin in March 2008 indicates that Sibu is supposed to be one of the BN’s “fixed deposits”.

Two ground rules

Ground rules established in Malaysian politics (corrected)

I am not suggesting that heavy state support for the bulk of Malay/bumiputera Malaysians might end on the grounds of economic backwardness. That is the first ground rule of Malayan/Malaysian politics that not even the March 2008 elections could sweep away. If you like, this is the 1957 legacy that was reinforced after the racial riots of 13 May 1969.

What the 2008 political tsunami did was lay down the second ground rule of Malaysian politics: the end of systematic discrimination against non-bumiputera Malaysians.

But how could these two ground rules be reconciled to form a middle ground position in Malaysian politics?

The answer can be framed by conceptually dividing Malaysians into four groups: better-off bumiputera; poor bumiputera; better-off non-bumiputera; and poor non-bumiputera.

terms and conditions
Equal treatment across
ethnic lines?
The first ground rule merely requires the emphasis on poor bumiputera. Bumiputeraism, however, goes beyond that ground rule and wants special treatment for both rich and poor bumiputera. In other words, bumiputeraism is really about the triumph of ethnic solidarity over class, and heredity over individual effort.

The second ground rule — on ending systematic discrimination against non-bumiputera — demands equal treatment across ethnic lines. This could mean a complete meritocracy where individual endowment and initiative are paramount. It could also mean equal treatment of bumiputera and non-bumiputera within some categories such as socio-economic class. The logic is that if poor bumiputera deserve state assistance, then so do poor non-bumiputera.

Which middle, Umno?

The meeting point between the 1957 and 2008 legacies can therefore be easily found in “need-based affirmative action” or “market-friendly affirmative action“. The two are not really identical but share one similarity — rich bumiputera would have to bid farewell to state support and embrace competition.

For competitive, middle-to-upper class bumiputera, competition means opportunity, dignity and justice. For others, such as the rent-seekers amongst rich bumiputera, competition translates as the unforgiveable sin of assaulting their “race” and challenging the “social contract“.

The middle ground position is unchallengeably held by the Pakatan Rakyat (PR) but within Umno, the debate remains open: how far should the party move to the middle ground to remain in power?

The resistance is almost self-explanatory — Umno is actually home to rent-seekers in the name of bumiputeraism.

So, at the heart of the movement to the centre is a trade off between the party’s collective interest to stay in power and the party warlords’ personal interests to continue benefiting from rent-seeking. 

But the trade-off mark varies depending on the degree of a stakeholder’s dominance within the system. If a stakeholder sits on top of the food chain, his or her economic interest lies more in his or her position in government rather than the perpetuation of bumiputeraism per se. He or she would be willing to do away with bumiputeraism if that’s what it takes to stay in power.

However, if he or she is just a small fry, he or she would benefit more from bumiputeraism than personal connections. He or she may thus want to keep bumiputeraism at all costs even if it could hurt Umno’s chances of staying in power.

To further problematise the situation, because there is a natural anti-reform constituency in the party, even top leaders will be tempted to play to the gallery at the expense of the party.

Put simply, Umno deputy president and Deputy Prime Minister Tan Sri Muhyiddin Yassin‘s “Malay first, Malaysian second” announcement cannot be explained purely based on outlook or upbringing. In fact, there are built-in incentives for some ambitious leaders in Umno to court and back groups such as Perkasa.

And so, how should the pan-Umno camp—  the party itself, rent-seeking business interests, Malay-Muslim nationalist groups and the Umno-linked media — decide how far the party should move towards the centre?

The crucial determinant would eventually be the change in support for Umno/BN amongst Malay and non-Malay Malaysian voters.

If tacit support for Perkasa could substantially raise Malay Malaysian support for Umno/BN at the expense of PAS and PKR, then Umno can be assured of power even if its non-Malay Malaysian support were depleted. But this is highly unlikely as the PR should be able to count on at least 40% of Malay Malaysian support. For the BN, this means that its non-Malay Malaysian support must not be hurt by the doublespeak in the 1Malaysia and ketuanan Melayu “chorus”.

Whither Vision 2020?

This is why the outcomes of Hulu Selangor and Sibu may shape the nation’s political economy over the next 10 years.

Let’s say the BN loses Sibu because of the desertion of Chinese Malaysian and non-Muslim bumiputera voters. The coalition should then worry about potentially losing 36 East Malaysian parliamentary constituencies where these two groups constitute the electorate’s majority in the next elections.

For similar reasons, the BN must not only win Hulu Selangor but increase its non-Malay Malaysian support there. There are currently some 93 West Malaysian parliamentary constituencies where non-Malay Malaysians form at least a third of the electorate.

Defeats in both by-elections will send shockwaves to Umno. It could mean that Najib’s 68% approval rating will not translate into votes come the next elections. It would mean that the electorate want real reform.

A double defeat would be an ultimatum: end bumiputeraism, enhance national competitiveness, and ensure the well-being of all the poor including East Malaysian natives, or just bow out.

However, if the BN wins both by-elections with substantial non-Malay Malaysian support, then Umno would not need to end bumiputeraism. A double victory would indicate to Umno that it merely needs to tone down, not end, bumiputeraist rhetoric in order to woo back non-bumiputera voters.

If that happens, the bumiputera/non-bumiputera divide will most likely accompany us in the New Economic Model until 2020. Therefore, let’s see what kinds of Vision 2020 Hulu Selangor and Sibu have in store. favicon

A political scientist by training and a journalism lecturer by trade, Wong Chin Huat looks forward to the 12th, 13th and nth by-elections before Malaysia’s next general election.

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10 Responses to “By-elections and bumiputeraism”

  1. jc10 says:

    For bumiputeras to buy a property with 5% discount is “tolerable”…but I think it should only be applicable to one property that is less than RM200k…only the rich can afford more than RM200k properties. Bumi discounts should not be given to rich bumis who can afford properties [selling for] more than RM200k…especially [if they are buying] more than one property.

  2. Osama says:

    Can we use 1,000 respondents to the survey as a yardstick of Najib’s approval rating? Understanding the survey mix is important, understanding the area where the survey was conducted is again important. If you conduct the survey in Johor, Gerik in Perak, Perlis perhaps, he has the 68% approval rating. Conduct it in urban centres, perhaps, the ratings may again be different as the urbanites are more politically savvy and know what is going on and most, I believe are not going to approve of what Perkasa and the DPM are doing?

    Perhaps, I may not be correct, but to use 1,000 respondents to represent 28 million Malaysians, well, it looks like it is worse than the 2,378 delegates of MCA who claimed that they represent the 6 million Chinese Malaysians? Hard to accept the survey’s findings really.

  3. ben says:

    “The logic is that if poor bumiputera deserve state assistance, then so do poor non-bumiputera.”

    This is so true. I saw many poor non-Bumis and it saddened me how the goverment are only helping the poor Bumis. The non-bumis, they have to live too and they do not have the fortune to send their offspring to private colleges or overseas to study. (I am a student so I see it this way.)

  4. sam says:

    First class analysis.

    In short, if BN wins both by-elections, we are doomed as a nation.


  5. Joon says:

    5% discount for bumi when buying houses? It’s 7% and up to 15% in some states. Quota is 50% up to 70% in some areas. Discount given to bumi only is outright discrimination. It’s not helping the poor, just helping a colour. What is worse now is that most bumi think that the discount is their right and entitlement as per the constitution.

  6. Joon says:

    Why are the non bumi putting up with such outright obvious discrimination in Malaysia?

  7. Main says:

    Bumiputeraism – nice catch phrase.

  8. Rhan says:

    “A double defeat would be an ultimatum: end bumiputeraism, enhance national competitiveness, and ensure the well-being of all the poor including East Malaysian natives, or just bow out.”

    I would think it is the other way round.

  9. Maika says:

    How about non-bumiputeraism practised in private companies dominated by Chinese [Malaysians]? How to end it? Or should it be kept?

  10. Merah Silu says:

    Wong Chin Huat, as usual, will paint very bleak future for Malay [Malaysians]. He uses his opportunity in his article to break and divide Malay [Malaysians], falsely creating a ‘no hope situation’ for Malay [Malaysians], and glorifies non-Malay [Malaysians] of his race, as the future ‘tuan’ of this country. He uses Umno as a smokescreen to condemn anything about Malays in this country, including royal institutions.

    He may not be aware that it was the Malays through Umno that agreed for the non-Malays to be granted citizenship. The Malays through Umno have never abandoned their non-Malay partners to share power in this country, including even to give the seat of Ulu Bernam to MIC. Do you think the Chinese and Indian [Malaysians] will do the same? I doubt it.

    This article reinforces my belief that Malay [Malaysians] will soon wake up from their deep sleep, and realise how Chinese [Malaysians] have manipulated them. While immediately after the British left in 1957, the non-Malays expressed their gratitute to the Malays for citizenship, these Chinese decendants no longer appreciate it. They pass derogatory remarks about Malay [Malaysians] – lazy, rent-seeking, etc. And they wanted the social contract to be abolished.

    I too would like the ‘social contract ‘ to be abolished. I would like to see the bumiputera clearly stated as the sons of the soil and should be the only group that can administer this country.

    I am also looking forward for the 13th GE and expected a landslide Malay [Malaysian] swing to Umno. Then I am looking forward for the unification of Malay politics between Umno and PAS. After that, Malay [Malaysians] do not need the vote from non-Malay [Malaysians] to manage this country. Non-Malay [Malaysians would] have to support Umno and PAS to be part of the government.

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